Wall Street, FTSE and European markets tumble as fears of AI bubble and US slowdown rattle investors

US private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs per week during the four weeks that ended 1 November, according to fresh data from ADP Research Tuesday.

That’s a narrower loss than the 14,250 private sector jobs shed by employers over the four weeks through 25 October.

Investors have closely watched private sector employment data as the longest-ever US government shutdown delayed the release of critical federal economic data.

Looking ahead, Wall Street is eyeing the long-awaited September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, which will factor into bets on the Fed’s path to interest rate cuts.

Donald Trump praised McDonald’s (MCD) for helping to bring down US inflation after it brought back its “Extra Value Meals”, priced between $5 and $8.

He said at a McDonald’s Impact Summit event on Monday night that the fast food giant had helped the economy after democrats had caused “the worst inflation in history,” adding that he was one of McDonald’s “all-time most loyal customers”.

Trump said:

It comes as US inflation rose from 2.9% to 3% in September, which economists have said has been worsened by the president’s tariffs on imported goods.

Global energy giant ExxonMobil (XOM) will close its manufacturing plant in Fife, the company has announced.

The Fife Ethylene Plant at Mossmorran – which produces the base material for plastics – is expected to shut in February.

About 200 direct jobs will be put at risk by the move, according to the Financial Times, along with more than 250 contractors working on the site, in another blow for Scotland’s manufacturing sector.

In a statement, the firm said:

A spokeswoman for the UK government said:

Ireland’s long-standing finance minister Paschal Donohoe is set to step down to join the World Bank as its managing director.

Donohoe, who has been in finance or public expenditure departments for the past 10 years, will also departure from his job as head of the Eurogroup, the alliance of member states who use the euro currency.

It comes as Donohoe has been appointed to the board of the World Bank, which was approved on Monday night.

Donohoe’s departure is a significant blow to the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil partnership and to the EU as one of the longest serving ministers attending EU summits.

His resignation could trigger a cabinet reshuffle but it will also prompt what is likely a hard by-election in Dublin central.

Cloudflare (NET) stock fell on Tuesday amid a network outage that impacted websites including X and Spotify (SPOT).

Thousands of users reported issues with a host of different sites, including the film review site Letterboxd, which were impacted by technical issues at the internet network services business.

Users of other apps including artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT also reported problems.

The DownDetector monitoring site, which was itself hit by the outage, showed a flurry of reported issues after 11am on Tuesday. More than 10,000 DownDetector users reported issues related to Cloudflare.

A number of the websites affected, including X, came back online temporarily before suffering further problems.

Users saw a message on a number of the websites saying the issues were caused by an “internal server error on Cloudflare’s network”.

Cloudflare provides network and security services for many online businesses in order to help their websites and applications operate.

The company said in a server update that it was “experiencing an internal service degradation” and that some service may be intermittently affected.

It added: “We are seeing services recover, but customers may continue to observe higher-than-normal error rates as we continue remediation efforts.”

Cloudflare, which runs services such as checking that visitors to websites are humans rather than bots, says around a fifth of all global websites use some of its services.

The stock, which has advanced around 80% this year, has fallen as much as 5% in pre-markets trading.

Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 17 drove a 37% rise in its monthly smartphone sales in China.

The latest iPhone models accounted for one in every four smartphones sold in the country in October, the first time it has hit that threshold since 2022, according to Counterpoint Research.

The 8% growth figure suggests Apple’s year-on-year upgrades are resonating with consumers and support boss Tim Cook’s prediction that the company will return to growth in China this quarter.

Each of the successor models, from the 5,999-yuan (about $850) iPhone 17 to the 8,999-yuan 17 Pro Max, outperformed its iPhone 16 precursor in sales by a double-digit percentage, Counterpoint said.

Meanwhile, Oppo’s smartphone sales grew 19% during the month from a year earlier, driven by demand for its Find X9 device with a larger battery. Huawei Technologies slipped by 19%, partly as it did not release a new model in October. Huawei remains Apple’s biggest rival in China, with a new flagship device launch planned for next week, though demand for the iPhone 17 appears steady.

Shares in Crest Nicholson (CRST.L) slid more than 8% on Tuesday morning, after it warned it expects to report lower pre-tax profit for the year.

In a full-year trading update, the housebuilder said it expected adjusted profit before tax to be at the low end of, or marginally below, a previous guidance range of £28m to £38m.

Martyn Clark, CEO of Crest Nicholson, said that this reflected a “housing market that has remained subdued through the summer, and the continued uncertainty surrounding government tax policy ahead of the forthcoming budget.”

It also expects to complete 1,691 homes this year, at the lower end of its range of between 1,700 and 1,900 homes, including 35% affordable units. Its sales rate was 0.51, compared with 0.48 in 2024, although it dropped to 0.45 in the last 13 weeks of its financial year.

It has sold five land parcels from larger sites as it trims its landbank, and is working on a new house type range.

The company is closing one divisional office and will cut 50 jobs, including staff at the site and some “selective other roles” across overhead functions.

Adam Vettese, a market analyst for eToro, said that Crest Nicholson’s latest trading update “highlights the ongoing difficulties facing UK housebuilders”.

“The combination of weaker volumes, margin pressures, and a lack of near-term catalysts leaves the investment case cautious for now,” he said. “Investors and would-be homebuyers alike will be looking to Westminster for reassurance that support for the UK housing market is not about to diminish further.”

Read more: Stocks that are trending today

More than half of British businesses are putting investment plans on hold until after next week’s budget while uncertainty over taxes and policy is hitting small firms the hardest, according to a report.

The latest Barclays Business Prosperity index survey found 55% of all firms polled are pausing investment decisions until after the chancellor’s long-awaited budget, with speculation swirling over whether taxes will or will not be increased.

Small firms are instead boosting their savings and building up a “precautionary” buffer, with savings growing at a greater rate than for large corporates, up 6.1% year-on-year, Barclays said.

The lending giant said small and medium sized companies (SMEs) also remained “tentative to borrow to invest” despite signs of a wider recovery in lending activity, with loan balances up 2.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven largely by larger corporates.

The report also showed the impact of budget worries, with more than four in 10 (45%) leaders of small businesses with fewer than 50 employees saying the level of certainty over future policy was having a negative impact on their companies.

Nearly a third of the 1,000 firms polled for the report called for greater policy stability from the chancellor to unlock private sector investment.

In a sign of brighter times on the horizon, 83% of companies said they planned to ramp up investment if the chancellor introduces supportive measures, such as reducing operating costs, improving access to skilled labour and providing policy stability.

Read the full article here

Shares in Imperial Brands (IMB.L) were up more than 2% on Tuesday morning, on the back of the tobacco giant’s full-year results.

Revenue for the year came in at £32.2bn ($42.4bn), which was slightly lower than the £32.4bn reported last year. Adjusted operating profit of £3.99bn was 4.6% higher than last year on a constant currency basis, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 315p were up 9.1% compared to 2024.

The traditional cigarette business remains resilient, with stable market share overall and gains in Germany and Australia offsetting modest declines in Spain and the UK. Revenue growth of 4% was driven by strong pricing (5%), offsetting volume declines of 2%, though these are reported to have eased slightly since.

Next generation products (NGP) continued to build momentum, with net revenue up 14% and operating losses marginally down. Imperial is making share gains across vapor, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches, supporting its longer-term strategy.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

In terms of its outlook for the 2026 fiscal year, Imperial said it expected to deliver net revenue growth in the low-single-digits for its tobacco business and in the double-digits for next-generation products. The company expects operating profit to grow in the 3% to 5% range.

“While there’s still some work to do to prove Imperial’s challenger status in next generation products, it’s establishing a reliable track record for generous payouts to shareholders, having distributed £10bn over the last five years, and looks well placed to maintain its distribution yield (dividends and buybacks) at over 10%,” said Nathan.

UK household energy bills are expected to fall slightly in the new year, according to new data from consultancy Cornwall Insight.

The forecaster expects homes using a typical amount of gas and electricity will pay £1,733 from January, a decrease of £22 per year, or 1%, from the current £1,755 price cap for a typical household’s annual energy bill.

However, Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, warned the decrease is “only part of the picture”, with bills set to climb again in April.

Regulator Ofgem will announce the latest price cap for around 22 million households in England, Wales and Scotland at the end of November.

Reselling tickets to live events for profit is to be outlawed by the government under plans due to be announced this week.

Ministers are set to announce the plan in a bid to tackle touts and resale sites, such as Viagogo and StubHub, which often offer music, theatre, comedy and sport tickets at well above face value.

The decision, due to be announced on Wednesday, comes a week after dozens of world-renowned artists – including Radiohead, Dua Lipa and Coldplay – issued an open plea to prime ministerKeir Starmer to follow through on Labour’s general election manifesto pledge by stopping “pernicious” touts.

Under the plan, which could form part of next year’s King’s speech, anyone selling a ticket will not be allowed to charge more than they paid for it. Resale platforms will be allowed to charge fees on top of that price.

These extras will also be limited, to ensure that they cannot be inflated artificially to offset profits forfeited owing to the legislation. The scale of the ceiling on service fees is yet to be determined.

The ban will also govern social media sites, which resale platforms have claimed would offer unregulated and potentially fraudulent tickets if legislation squeezes online ticket exchanges out of the market.

Anyone reselling a ticket will also be prohibited from offering more tickets than they could have procured under limits set by the original box office company.

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) suggested the move would end the “business model of industrial-scale ticket touting”, and would make resale tickets £37 cheaper on average, saving fans collectively £112m per year.

“Ticket touting has become increasingly sophisticated in recent years,” a DCMS statement said.

“Touts buy large volumes of tickets online, often using automated bots, before relisting them on resale platforms at hugely inflated prices. This has caused misery for millions of fans and damaged the live events industry.

“The new laws will stamp out this practice, improving access for genuine fans when tickets originally go on sale and ending rip-off pricing on the resale market.”

Housing Secretary Steve Reed told BBC Breakfast touts making profits at the expense of fans was “such an important issue” as it was “hugely damaging to individuals having to pay through the nose for tickets”.

He stressed the government was “committed to outlawing it”.

Here are the top FTSE risers and fallers this morning:

The price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell to its lowest level since April as global markets racked up their fourth day of losses in a row amid concerns over technology valuations.

The world’s largest crypto coin dropped as low as $89,286 on Tuesday morning, reaching a seven-month low, meaning it has lost all its gains made in 2025.

Bitcoin has now fallen by almost a third since hitting a record high at the start of last month. According to data from CoinGecko, the global cryptocurrency market cap is $3.15trn, down from $4,379trn on 7 October.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Onvestor, said:

The boss of Google (GOOG) warned that every company in the world could take a hit if a bubble in AI stocks burst.

Speaking to BBC News, Sundar Pichai said while the growth of AI investment had been an “extraordinary moment”, there was some “irrationality” in the current boom.

Tech stocks suffered a sharp sell-off overnight as traders become uneasy about soaring valuations.

Tareck Horchani of Singapore investment bank Maybank Securities said: “It’s starting to feel like investor conviction at current levels is fading.

“It’s less about a sharp catalyst and more about positioning fatigue, valuation sensitivity, and a growing sense that the rally needs a pause.”

His comments come a day after Google parent firm Alphabet saw its shares surge by more than 3% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had taken a stake in the tech giant.

The UK’s deposit protection limit for customers of banks, building societies, and credit unions will increase to £120,000, up from £85,000, from 1 December 2025. The move aims to strengthen consumer confidence and provide greater security for depositors in the event that their financial institution fails.

The new limit applies to deposits held with UK-authorised financial institutions, and it is designed to protect customers in the event of a bank, building society, or credit union failing. The increase marks the first change in the deposit protection limit since 2017, when it was set at £85,000.

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) will implement the higher limit automatically, meaning customers do not need to take any action to benefit from the increased protection. The FSCS guarantees that customers will receive their compensation, up to the £120,000 limit, within seven days of a financial institution’s failure.

Justifying the increase, Sam Woods, deputy governor for Prudential Regulation at the Bank of England and chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), said:

The new £120,000 limit also exceeds an earlier PRA proposal of £110,000, which was adjusted following consultations with the banking sector. The move aims to provide consumers with more protection as inflation continues to erode the real value of their savings.

Customers holding accounts with more than one brand under the same banking licence should take note that the £120,000 protection applies to the total balance across all their accounts within that group. Therefore, if a banking group operates several brands, the compensation limit applies to the aggregate balance of the accounts, not individually.

Read more here

Stocks in Asia slumped overnight after Nvidia (NVDA) and other companies linked to artificial intelligence pulled US stocks lower. The Nikkei (^N225) tumbled 3.2% on the day in Japan, with selling of tech shares leading the decline, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.7% in Hong Kong.

Regional markets felt a chill after the yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds surged to 3.31%, reflecting rising risks as prime minister Sanae Takaichi prepares to boost government spending and push back the timetable for bringing down Japan’s huge national debt.

The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.8% down by the end of the session and in South Korea, which relies heavily on trade in computer chips, the Kospi (^KS11) lost 3.3% on the day.

Across the pond, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.9% to 6,672.41, pulling further from its all-time high set late last month, and marking its worst three-day run since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.8% lower, closing at 22,708.07, and thThe Dow Jones (^DJI) lost 1.2% to close at 46,590.24

It comes as computer chip giant Nvidia is due to report its earnings on Wednesday amid worries that stock prices of AI companies have shot too high. The stock dropped 1.8% on the day, although it is still up nearly 40% this year

Also hanging over the markets is the release of US employment data due on Thursday, which was delayed by the prolonged government shutdown.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and what’s happening across the global economy.

Here’s a quick look at what’s on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: Imperial Brands, Diploma, FirstGroup, Greencore, Softcat, Great Portland Estates, Crest Nicholson, CVS Group, ICG, Trifast, Gear4Music, CML Microsystems

• 10am: Treasury Committee hearing on risks and rewards of embracing crypto

• 1pm: Huw Pill, Bank of England’s chief economist, to give speech at Skinners Hall, London

• 3pm: US factory orders and durable goods data for August