San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie says the city’s top industry isn’t tech or artificial intelligence, it’s tourism.
Economists say the next phase of recovery hinges on bringing back international visitors, especially from China, who historically spend more and stay longer.
At Fisherman’s Wharf, restaurant manager Luis Ruano is feeling the gap. Standing outside Sabella & La Torre, he calls out to passing pedestrians, hoping to draw in customers.
“These days it’s kind of slow. Very slow,” said Ruano, who has worked at the restaurant for more than a decade and says business has not fully bounced back.
Some tourists are still making the trip despite higher costs. Lawrence Guillermo, visiting with his family from the Philippines, said airfare has climbed.
“We just purchased a ticket a couple weeks ago, and the price was higher than usual,” said Guillermo.
New data from Visit California shows overall travel spending rose last year in both San Francisco and across California. But international spending remains down by about $1 billion compared with pre-pandemic levels, underscoring the uneven recovery.
Industry leaders say tourism growth is already helping stabilize city finances.
“We’ve already seen the deficit closing and getting better for our city by the increased numbers in the travel and hospitality space,” said Alex Bastian, president and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco.
“If we continue to grow and push forward, there’s no question the tax base is going to grow.”
According to the Bay Area Council, overall international travel to San Francisco has largely recovered. But travel from China remains a major weak spot, with passenger volumes still about 22% below pre-pandemic levels.
“That obviously really matters because they’re spending a longer time visiting, they’re spending more than other international tourists,” said Abby Raisz, vice president of research.
“Bringing more of them back would have an outsized impact on small businesses, foot traffic and hotel revenue.”
Data shows Chinese visitors typically spend two to three times more than domestic travelers. While travel from the rest of Asia has rebounded, the slower return from China highlights a key gap in San Francisco’s tourism recovery.
“The rest of Asia has recovered, but the Chinese market is still down significantly,” Raisz said. “There’s clearly more work to be done to get those visitors back.”
City leaders are now working to boost international tourism, including efforts to strengthen ties with China.
For small businesses like those along the Wharf, the stakes are clear. More visitors could mean a much-needed boost.
San Francisco Travel, the city’s tourism bureau, is expected to release updated 2026 tourism projections later this spring.
