It’s the time of year when Apple finalizes many key details about next fall’s flagship iPhone lineup, and recent leaks indicate the iPhone 18 line could present an especially tough upgrade decision for almost all users.
Apple’s iPhone lineup is going through a major overhaul
Up until very recently, the iPhone lineup stayed fairly consistent.
It’s been limited to four new models every year. And for years those models have been straightforward: two ‘standard’ models in differing sizes, plus two ‘Pro’ models in differing sizes.
But next year, rumors indicate there are big lineup changes coming.
In fall 2026, Apple is only expected to ship three iPhone models:
- iPhone 18 Pro
- iPhone 18 Pro Max
- iPhone Fold (or iPhone Ultra, if Apple deems it such)
Then, the following spring, three more models will follow:
- iPhone 18e
- iPhone 18
- iPhone Air 2
This new release schedule, along with the introduction of a new high-end foldable model, could present a very tough decision for almost everyone.
And already, some users have gotten a small taste of that dilemma with Apple’s recent iPhone 17 lineup.
iPhone Air was the start of a new model dilemma
In recent years, it’s been relatively easy for users to choose their iPhone model.
Two questions solved it: Standard or Pro? Big or small?
Yet this year, Apple shook things up by replacing iPhone Plus with iPhone Air, which the company pitches as having “the power of Pro.”
iPhone Air sales reportedly haven’t been great, but it did win over plenty of typical iPhone Pro users—myself included.
I always buy a Pro model, but this year’s decision was much harder, and I eventually went Air instead.
Next year though, I think far more iPhone upgraders will face a similarly tough decision.
iPhone 18 line could offer tough upgrade decision for many
Regardless of which iPhone model you typically choose, next year’s decision won’t be so simple.
If you normally buy the base iPhone model, what happens next fall when there is no base option? Do you buy a more expensive iPhone 18 Pro instead? Or wait in the hopes of a cheaper option later on?
If you bought and love the iPhone Air, next fall there won’t be an Air 2 to upgrade to quite yet. Sure, most iPhone owners don’t buy new phones every year. But the Air has a unique appeal among early adopters—the exact kind of users who do upgrade annually.
What about iPhone Pro users? Normally they might have an easy choice, since new 18 Pro models will be available. Except there’s the matter of Apple’s first foldable model.
The more leaks emerge about the foldable, the more inclined I am to think Apple will use ‘iPhone Ultra’ naming for the device.
If that proves true, I see plenty of Pro users being tempted by the foldable.
Lots of people choose ‘Pro’ because they just want the best possible iPhone. ‘iPhone Ultra’ would be hard to resist not only for its name, but also for having the biggest screen, possibly the best battery life, and other unique form factor advantages such as upgraded iOS 27 multitasking.
So even though there will be new iPhone 18 Pro models available, your typical Pro user might still face an upgrade dilemma.
It’s risky for Apple to shake up a strategy that’s served it well for years. And I am a little worried about abandoning Steve Jobs’ 2×2 matrix. But whether these pivots succeed or not, users will need to start putting more thought into which iPhone model they choose.
What are your plans regarding an iPhone 18 upgrade next fall? Let us know in the comments.
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